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WP2: From the population to the metapopulation

Modelling the between-herd spread of pathogens accounting for the contact structure between herds

The second workpackage focuses on the transition from the population scale to that of the metapopulation, e.g. a region or a supply chain involving several farms.
  • We will consider the between-herd contact network which results from various transmission routes whose relative contributions to pathogen spread must be defined (task T2a).
  • For most pathogens under investigation here, purchases of infected animals is the principal source of between-herd pathogen spread (in a region: task T2b; in a supply chain: task T2c).

To jointly consider the dynamic process of pathogen transmission and contact networks, large databases will be required, as will the development of complex models and efficient computer simulation programmes. Through the project multi-disciplinary partnership, large-scale simulation experiments will be performed involving hierarchical models that will be coupled at different scales. In particular, a computational grid that already has been developed will be used to run a large number of parallel simulations. Its capability to be used by epidemiologists and modellers will be verified.